By Gabriel Barkay, Alexander Fantalkin, Oren Tal
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Extra resources for A Late Iron Age Fortress North of Jerusalem
This in one respect is not surprising: War is intrinsically an enterprise with substantial uncertainty, and this uncertainty is reflected in the wide variability of intervening events in each simulation run. One way to characterize this variability is to consider the space of possible decisions that Red and Blue commanders can make in the scenario. If one adds up all possible moves of all units and multiplies them together, one gets a maximum estimate of the model decision space: over 20,000 states.
When the Red force is wiped out and Blue is not) that are not a part of the primary distribution. Note that the rules of disengagement and conflict termination employed in this proof-of-concept model are that both sides fight to the death. With more realistic rules of disengagement and conflict termination, the resulting distribution described above may be broad in both dimensions and extend into the interior of the histogram rectangle shown (this conjecture will be investigated in future research).
In this case both commanders proceed with their plan in 30-minute time blocks. At the end of each time block, they can decide to maintain their previously determined course and not make any changes, or they can direct their subordinate units to change their current maneuver operations based on the battlefield situation awareness data available at that time. In this case, where both sides have substantial decision delays, Blue loses most of the time. The results fall into a broad, one-dimensional distribution where Blue loses all of its tanks and Red loses about 75 percent of its force (with substantial variation in the number of Red tanks killed).
A Late Iron Age Fortress North of Jerusalem by Gabriel Barkay, Alexander Fantalkin, Oren Tal