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Extra info for Aid and Power in the Arab World: World Bank and IMF Policy-Based Lending in the Middle East and North Africa

Sample text

This is reflected in the numbers. Over the last twenty years, large commitments in some years were followed by little or no borrowing. Of total funds committed, large amounts were later cancelled, and the cost of dropped projects has been more than twice the Bank average. 6) Successful stabilisation The nature of the programme In 1991 Egypt signed a Standby loan with the IMF worth SDR 234 million and a Structural Adjustment Loan with the World Bank worth US$300 million. The economic reform conditions which accompanied these loans constituted the ERSAP programme which was initially intended to span a five year period.

34, Abdellatif 2003). By 1988 investment had reached a peak of 34 per cent of GDP. However, capital accumulation was financed more by increasing sources of external rent than by domestic savings accumulation. External rent took the form of aid inflows, migrant workers remittances, Suez Canal revenues, oil exports38 and earnings from tourism as Egypt increasingly took on the characteristics of an inward looking rentier economy. However, the collapse in oil prices in the early 1980s affected rental income from Arab aid, migrant remittances, Suez revenues and oil exports.

However, two general factors help account for the outliers. Firstly, the problem of missing variables, that is, our model may exclude some important variables which are determining factors in individual cases. For example, the cases of IMF loans to Egypt in 1976 and Jordan in 1989 may be partially explained by the use of such loans by the US and other Western powers to help facilitate the peace process between these two countries and Israel. Jordan’s 1992 loan was largely the product of the Gulf War and Yemen in 1997 is a special case since its IMF loan took the form of an ESAF accompanied by a PRGF.

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