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Extra info for Fiscal and Generational Imbalances: New Budget Measures for New Budget Priorities

Example text

The survival probabilities, mortality rates, and immigration counts through 2080 are those under SSA’s intermediate assumptions. Mortality rates for years after 2080 are estimated using SSA’s projection methodology. This methodology adjusts each future year’s mortality rates by age and sex according to a cause-ofdeath-specific rate of decline in the death rate weighted by the number of deaths by cause of death. The annual rate of decline in mortality rates by cause of death is assumed to be constant.

This share is provided by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) through 2070 and is extrapolated through 2080 according to its trend between 2061 and 2070. For years beyond OMB’s terminal projection year, the terminal year’s per-capita benefits are extended by applying two growth factors. 7 percent per year. The second factor is designed to capture the impact of projected mortality—specifically, changes through time in the number of retirees by age and sex that are projected to die within one year relative to those projected to survive for more than a year.

B=2 t=b x=m,f b,t b,t b,t Hence, the relationship between the GI terms [the terms in curly brackets in equations (A5) and (A7)] can be expressed as 1+ ∆ (A8) GI0 = R • GI1 -- R Σ Rt-1 [ Σ (β x -- τ x )p x ]. t=1, Rearranging, (A9) R • GI1 --GI0 = R • NT1 or x=m, f 1, t 1, t 1, t APPENDIX A 47 (A9a) NT1 = GI1 -- (GI0 / R) b+∆ Σ Rt-b [ Σ (β x -- τ x )px ] —the net transfer to the where NTb stands for t=b x=m,f b,t b,t b,t cohort born in period b. Equation (A9) says that the difference between GI0 and the discounted value of GI1 is equal to the discounted net transfer to the generation born in period 1.

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