Download e-book for kindle: Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk (National by Deborah Lucas

By Deborah Lucas

ISBN-10: 0226496589

ISBN-13: 9780226496580

The U.S. executive is the world’s biggest bank, supplying credits and assuming threat via different actions. however the power fee and probability of those activities and duties stay poorly understood and simply partly measured. govt budgetary and fiscal accounting ideas, which principally ensure the data to be had to federal determination makers, have in basic terms simply started to handle those concerns. in spite of the fact that, lately there was a push to reconsider how those courses are valued and accounted for, and a few growth has been made in utilizing smooth valuation methods—such as thoughts pricing, risk-adjusted savings, and cost at risk—to most of these obligations.This e-book includes new study, either empirical and methodological, at the size and administration of those bills and hazards. The analyses surround a large spectrum of federal courses, together with housing, disaster coverage, scholar loans, social protection, and environmental liabilities. jointly, the contributions accumulated in Measuring and handling Federal monetary hazard show that the common sense of economic economics could be a great tool for learning various federal actions.

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Additional resources for Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report)

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What I can offer, however, is perspective on how the policy process works and how information about budget impacts, in general, and financial risk, in particular, gets analyzed, communicated, and used. That perspective offers three particular insights. First, the most useful techniques for measuring federal financial risk will Donald B. Marron is a visiting professor at the Georgetown Public Policy Institute and president of Marron Economics, LLC. This chapter is based on a presentation at the February 6, 2007 conference; at the time, the author served as Deputy Director of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

Pdf. Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk 25 of money for programs that stretch across multiple years. This is an area of weakness for standard budgeting techniques. In most cases, programs are evaluated based on their direct budget impacts over periods such as five or ten years. By convention, those impacts are simply summed across years without any accounting of the time value of money. As a result, a proposal that would move $1 billion in spending from ten years in the future to today would be scored as having no direct budget impact over a ten-year window, despite the real increase in overall spending.

Marron cost of risk bearing. Full-blown measurement of financial risk requires appropriate treatment of all four of these elements. However, each of those elements poses challenges within traditional budgeting techniques. Improvements at each level may enhance the budget process, even if all four are not fully addressed. The first step in addressing risk, of course, is recognizing that a range of future outcomes is possible. Program outlays may depend on the outcome of future events such as the magnitude of disasters, the frequency of loan defaults, or the level of commodity prices.

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Measuring and Managing Federal Financial Risk (National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report) by Deborah Lucas


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